CDM Smith conducted a comprehensive transport study using multi-source data and three forecasting approaches to support RTA’s proposed toll gates. A hybrid model—combining Dubai Strategic Transport Model (DSTM) outputs with time-series trends—was selected for its conservative and reliable projections through 2071. A custom Excel-based forecast tool was developed to estimate transactions across all existing and new gates.
CDM Smith applied a hybrid modelling approach that integrates macro-economic indicators, network dynamics and historic trends. This method ensured reliable forecasting for both existing and proposed Salik gates through 2071, supporting confident planning and valuation decisions.
We analyzed extensive historical data from Salik systems, RTMS devices and peak-hour traffic from DSTM models. This multi-layer dataset strengthened the accuracy of projected volumes and ensured a rigorous technical basis for commercial evaluation.
A specialized forecasting tool was designed to generate long-range transaction volumes from 2023 to 2071. The tool integrates historical records with DSTM peak-hour outputs, allowing RTA to test scenarios, understand growth patterns, and review future gate performance.
The advisory supported RTA’s efforts to optimize tolling operations by assessing expected traffic, revenue potential and corridor performance at Al Safa South and Business Bay Crossing. The analysis strengthens future planning for Dubai’s expanding mobility network.
Dubai RTA engaged CDM Smith to provide traffic advisory services for two new toll gates as part of the Dubai strategic road network enhancement program. Delivered within a 5-week schedule, the study assessed long-term transaction volumes for eight existing gates and two proposed locations—Al Safa South and Business Bay Crossing. We developed three forecasting approaches, ultimately recommending a hybrid model combining DSTM outputs with time-series analysis for robust, conservative estimates. The DSTM component captured macro-economic and regional dynamics, including growth in population, employment and tourism, while the time-series algorithms modelled long-term historic trends. A customized Excel-based forecasting tool was also created to extend projections through 2071, enabling RTA to evaluate commercial viability and future toll operations with confidence.
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